Agricultural employment in the grip of climate change

Abstract

Hungarian agriculture has undergone a very dynamic transformation in the last decade and a half, affecting almost all aspects of the sector, driven by a number of factors ranging from globalising commodity markets to subsidy policies and climate change. All of these factors have a direct or indirect impact on the sector's labour requirements, their qualitative, quantitative and temporal characteristics. While climate change and labour scarcity are studied separately in academic research, we attempt to link them. In the first part of the paper, we present the results of the relevant international literature, followed by an analysis of linked government panel data. The cluster analysis of panel data reveals a national-level reallocation of the main groups of agricultural workers (2008-2017). The process can be characterised as extreme polarisation, with an extraordinary expansion of the casual labour group alongside full-time employment, accompanied by a decline in the number of temporary (seasonal) workers. The casual labour force is also sharply divided into distinct groups, with a distinctive stratum consisting of those who work virtually all year round on a casual basis and those who are genuinely casual workers for shorter periods only, who in many respects have displaced those on fixed-term contracts.

To explore this labour market process and the drivers behind adaptation to climate change, qualitative research was conducted among farmers running horticultural or viticultural farms in four regions of Hungary with different agricultural characteristics to explore adaptation strategies, typical farmer adaptation pathways emerging from everyday decisions, and the considerations, intentions and constraints behind these decisions. Both qualitative and quantitative research findings indicate that domestic farmers have responded to the increase in production risks posed by climate change mainly through technical and technological adaptation, linked to labour-saving mechanisation and a tendency to employ reliable labour force on a full-time, year-round basis. The impact of climate change on working conditions and labour productivity is perceived by domestic farmers, but there is an 'unconscious adaptation' (different working schedules, mechanisation, improvement of tools and methods, protective clothing, flexibility of working pace, etc.).