Climate change vulnerability in the Hungarian horticulture and viticulture sectors: characteristics and differences

Abstract

The climate vulnerability of the agricultural sector is particularly high, especially in the viticulture, fruit and vegetable sectors. The potential damage caused by late spring frosts is particularly significant. In addition to compromising the harvest, extreme weather events can also harm perennial plants and agricultural infrastructure. Beyond affecting yield quantity, climate change can adversely impact product quality, which is a critical determinant of marketability in these sectors. Furthermore, the heightened intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with the fragmented structure of agricultural holdings, also contributes to the vulnerability of the horticultural sector. Climate adaptation is a priority in many international and national policy strategies. In our study we aim to develop a coherent theoretical framework that allows for a complex understanding of climate vulnerability.

The aim of the research is to analyze the climate vulnerability of vine, fruit and vegetablefarmers in four study areas in Hungary through an analysis of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; to describe farmers' perceptions of climate change; to identify good adaptation practices used by farmers; and to identify environmental, social and economic factors that influence regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, perception and adaptive capacity. The study used qualitative (semi-structured interviews) and quantitative (calculation of vulnerability indicators) methods. The districts of Bonyhád, Gyöngyös, Nagykőrös, and Szentes were selected as case study areas to reflect the diverse environmental and socio-economic conditions present across the country.

Quantitative indicators revealed a significant rise in temperature and exposure to heatwaves across all case areas over the past two decades. In contrast, precipitation trends exhibited greater variability between the case areas. The likelihood of late spring frosts has also increased despite the overall warming trend. The qualitative results show that farmers' perceptions of the negative impacts of climate change were unanimous, although their perceptions differed partially from the measured data.

Farmers employ a diverse array of adaptation practices, including modifications to work routines, investments in both low-tech and high-tech infrastructure, and the implementation of nature-based solutions. Some adaptation strategies extend beyond agricultural production itself, encompassing diversification or, in the most severe cases, the complete cessation of horticultural activities. Innovative methods tend to spread most effectively in regions characterized by high social capital and robust networks. Our findings suggest that successful adaptation is feasible even under conditions of high climate exposure or adverse socio-economic circumstances. In some cases, a degree of isolation can even incentivize adaptation efforts. However, in the most disadvantaged peripheral areas, a lack of fundamental resources and skills may significantly impede the ability to adapt effectively.